中东欧的民粹主义基础及其影响——兼论中国与中东欧国家关系

Resurgence of Populism in Central and Eastern Europe:Implications for China-CEE Relations

中东欧民粹政党有大量社会底层支持者,农民是最有代表性的民粹主义基础。从历史制度主义的视角看,以农民为代表的中东欧民粹支持者与历史上保守势力的支持基础有类似的逻辑。在农业仍为关键产业的中东欧国家,当传统经济受到转型后突如其来的外部经济影响时,既有经济结构和生产关系受到严峻挑战,在本土保守势力的推动下,竞争力不足的中东欧国家呼吁保护传统经济,反对以西欧为代表的新自由主义的价值腐化、以威权整肃国内腐败、强调历史上的民族荣光、复兴宗教及家庭伦理等。这一思潮被民粹政党用以获取政治权力。在外部经济压力下,农民、城市底层民众、经济民族主义者、保守的政治精英、大文化中心论者共同构成支持民粹主义的基础,民粹政党的兴起是精英和大众共同推动的结果。中东欧民粹政党自该地区转型后就出现在政治舞台,其影响深度和广度是欧洲其他地区所不及的。有鉴于此,探索一条以民粹主义基础为导向的策略路径,整合政府、企业和民间机构三类实践主体,有助于强化中国在中东欧的影响力。积极推进民粹政党或执政党的对华合作,是中国强化和拓展中东欧地区利益的重要方向。

The populist parties in Central and Eastern Europe(CEE)have a large number of grassroots supporters.From the perspective of historical institutionalism,the populist basis in CEE represented by peasants is similar to the social basis of reactionaries in history.In CEE,where agriculture is still a key economic sector,when the traditional economy is suddenly invaded by the foreign economy,the existing economic structure and production relations are severely challenged.CEE countries with insufficient competitiveness thus call for the protection of traditional economies,opposing the corruption of neoliberal values represented by Western Europe,purging domestic corruption with authoritarianism,emphasizing the glory of the nation in history,and renaissance of religion and family ethics.This sentiment is taken advantage by populist parties to gain political power.Under the pressure of foreign economy,peasants,urban underclass,economic nationalists,political conservative elites,and cultural chauvinists come together to form a complex populist basis.The political collusion between the elite and the masses has led to the rise of populist parties.The populist parties in CEE have taken center stage since the transition,and their strength and reach are unmatched by any other parts of Europe.In view of this,exploring a mass-based strategic path that integrates three types of practice entities including government,enterprises,and nongovernmental sectors will help China to increase influence in CEE and actively encourage populist or ruling parties of CEE countries to cooperate with China.