未来气候变化情景下贵州省降水集中度变化特征研究

Change of Precipitation Concentration Degree in Guizhou under Future Climate Change Scenarios

全球气候变化背景下,理清未来降水集中状况变化规律对区域防洪抗洪以及水资源利用至关重要.基于国家气候中心提供的贵州省84个站点预估气候数据,利用克里金插值、小波分析等,分析了未来气候变化情景下贵州省降水集中度变化特征.结果表明:除RCP8.5情景外,RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景的贵州省降水集中度均呈下降趋势.东部地区是3种情景降水集中度增加的主要区域.各情景不同季节的降水集中度变化趋势存在差异,夏季与秋季的各情景降水集中度变化趋势相反.3种情景下汛期与非汛期降水集中度均呈增加趋势,东部地区均为增加幅度较大区域.56 a是3种情景的降水集中度变化的主周期.

Under the background of global climate change,it is very important to clarify the variation of precipitation concentration in the future for regional flood control and water resources utilization.Based on the climate data of 84 stations in Guizhou Province provided by the National Climate Center,the change characteristics of precipitation concentration degree in Guizhou Province under future climate change scenarios were analyzed by the methods of Kriging interpolation and wavelet analysis.The results show that the precipitation concentration degree under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios in Guizhou Province represented a downward trend except for RCP8.5 scenario.The eastern part of Guizhou was the main area where precipitation concentration degree increases.There was obvious different for change trend of precipitation concentration degree in four seasons.The change trend of precipitation concentration degree in summer was opposite to autumn.The precipitation concentration degrees in flood season and non-flood season showed an increasing trend under three scenarios,and the eastern region increased obviously.56 a was the main period of precipitation concentration degree change in three scenarios.