对“十四五”中国天然气产业发展的思考

Reflections on the development of natural gas industry in China during the 14th Five-Year Plan

采用回归分析方法预测2025年中国天然气需求量,在GDP增速分别为5.5%、6%和6.5%,以及天然气在一次能源消费中的比例分别为10.5%、11.5%和12.5%的几种不同组合情景下,2025年中国天然气需求量为4400亿~5400亿立方米。2025年,中国天然气对外依存度为48%~57%。综合考虑资源获取、基础设施、市场化改革、天然气利用效率这些影响天然气发展的因素,提出建议:1)平衡政府和市场的作用,继续深化改革,有序放开市场价格,从供需两侧平衡市场;2)进一步优化政策,推动增储上产,筑牢资源基础;3)“十四五”期间,国际天然气资源供应相对宽松,需要积极创造有利的外部环境,保障进口安全;4)扩大天然气基础设施覆盖范围,规范建设运营管理机制,规避基础设施独立运营过渡期可能带来的供需失衡风险,提高企业参与建设的积极性,避免出现新的垄断行为;5)持续优化产业结构,重点关注技术进步推进型的产业结构升级,鼓励能源技术自主创新,降低能耗,提升天然气综合利用效率。

This paper forecasts the natural gas consumption in 2025 by means of regression analysis method.It shows that the natural gas demand in 2025 will be 440-540 billion cubic meters under several different combination scenarios of GDP growth rate of 5.5%,6%and 6.5%and the proportion of natural gas in primary energy of 10.5%,11.5%and 12.5%.In 2025,the degree of foreign dependence of natural gas will be 48-57%.Considering such factors affecting the development of natural gas as resource acquisition,infrastructure,market-oriented reform,and natural gas utilization efficiency,the paper puts forward some suggestions that 1)balance the role of the government and the market,continue to deepen reform,liberalize market prices orderly,and balance the market from both sides of supply and demand;2)further optimize policies,increase reserves and production,and consolidate the resource base;3)build a favorable external environment to ensure import safety since the loose supply of international natural gas resources during the 14th Five-Year Plan period;4)expand the coverage of natural gas infrastructure,standardize the construction operation and management mechanism,evade the risk of supply and demand imbalance that may arise from the transition period of independent operation of infrastructure,increase the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in the construction,and avoid new monopoly behaviors;5)continue to optimize the industrial structure,emphasize on upgrading the industrial structure driven by technological progress,encourage independent innovation in energy technologies,reduce energy consumption,and improve the comprehensive utilization efficiency of natural gas.