实体经济行业“去杠杆”降低商业银行脆弱性了吗?

Has the Real Economy Industry “Deleveraging” Reduced the Vulnerability of Commercial Banks?

基于2011年第1季度至2020年第1季度数据,运用断点回归模型考察了实体经济行业“去杠杆”对商业银行脆弱性的影响。研究结论表明,实体经济行业“去杠杆”在总体上显著降低了商业银行脆弱性,稀释了系统性金融风险的压力,金融去杠杆政策取得了一定的成效。进一步分析发现,实体经济行业“去杠杆”对不同类型商业银行脆弱性的影响具有显著性差异,行业“去杠杆”会显著降低国有商业银行、股份制商业银行以及城市商业银行的脆弱性,而显著增加农村商业银行的脆弱性。这要求政府在实施金融“去杠杆”政策过程中,不仅要充分考虑去杠杆对不同类型企业本身会造成显著性差异,更要防范去杠杆对不同类型商业银行脆弱性的影响。

Based on the data from the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2020,using the breakpoint regression model to examine the impact of“deleveraging”of industries on the vulnerability of commercial banks.The research conclusions show that the“deleveraging”of the real economy industry has significantly reduced the vulnerability of commercial banks and diluted the pressure of systemic financial risks,and financial deleveraging policies have achieved certain results.Further analysis shows that the impact of industry“deleveraging”on the vulnerability of different types of commercial banks is significantly different.The“deleveraging”of the industry will significantly reduce the vulnerability of state-owned commercial banks,joint-stock commercial banks,and city commercial banks,significantly increasing the vulnerability of rural commercial banks.This requires the government to not only fully consider the significant differences between different types of enterprises in the process of implementing deleveraging financial policies,but also to prevent the impact of deleveraging on the vulnerability of different types of commercial banks.