中缅经济走廊建设是“债务陷阱”吗? ——基于缅甸外债真相的分析

Is China-Myanmar Economic Corridor a“Debt Trap”?:An Analysis Based on the truth of Myanmar’s External Debt

随着“一带一路”建设的不断推进,西方掀起炒作中国“债务陷阱论”的热潮,东南亚、南亚及非洲等地区的“一带一路”项目成为被炒作的焦点,中缅经济走廊建设受到“债务陷阱”言论较大的负面冲击。未来“债务陷阱论”继续在缅甸哄炒的可能性仍然存在,中缅经济走廊建设乃至中缅关系仍面临较大挑战。西方有关中缅经济走廊“债务陷阱”的言论既无科学论证也无事实依据,其意欲混淆视听,误导民众,掩盖经济走廊的真实益处,干扰中缅正常合作。本文通过国际货币基金组织和世界银行债务分析框架的实证分析表明,中缅经济走廊建设是建立在缅甸外债可持续的基础之上,缅甸外债不仅规模偏小,结构合理,且具有可持续性;外债可持续性需以发展可持续性为前提,缅甸经济发展并未充分发挥外债的促进作用,政府应通过合理借贷以实现经济可持续发展,以“共商共建共享”为合作原则的中缅经济走廊建设高度契合缅甸经济发展的内在需求,是缅甸的“惠民走廊”。

With the B&R moving forward,the West has been stirring up a wave of speculation about China’s debt trap.It has been a hot topic in Southeast Asia,South Asia and Africa.“Debt trap theory”has great repercussions in Myanmar.Myanmar officials and people are worried about it.The construction of CMEC has been negatively impacted.In the future,especially before and after Myanmar’s general election in 2020,the possibility that the“debt trap theory”would continue to stir up in Myanmar still exists,and the construction of CMEC and even the China-Myanmar relations are facing great challenges.The“debt trap”of CMEC has neither scientific demonstration nor factual basis.It is intended to confuse the public,to mislead the public,to cover up the real benefits of CMEC and to disturb normal and smooth cooperation between China and Myanmar.The empirical analysis shows that the construction of CMEC is based on the sustainable external debt of Myanmar by the Debt Analysis Framework of IMF and WB.Myanmar’s external debt is not only small in scale and reasonable in structure,but also sustainable and necessary to its economic development.The construction of CMEC highly conforms to the internal needs of Myanmar’s economic development and is Myanmar’s“people benefiting corridor”.