试验田:中国在东南亚日益 增强的影响力与地区反应

The Testing Ground:China’s Rising Influence in Southeast Asia and Regional Responses

本文结合中国周边外交的大背景,考察中国对东南亚的外交政策。文章描述了中国如何处理两大相互冲突的目标诉求:既要通过“一带一路”倡议在经济上不断促进东南亚与本国的紧密联系,同时又要寻求强化对南中国海域内存有争议领土的实际控制。本文还探讨了中国与东盟和东南亚各国的关系,聚焦于分析与印度尼西亚和越南的关系。本文讨论揭示,东南亚如何愈益明显地变成中国发展为大国过程中的一块试验田,并成为其未来全球扩张的一个门户。本文讨论还表明,东南亚国家并非中国常说的蹚水过河时触摸的那些毫无生命的石头;它们是有着自身能动性的国家,能够挫败或利用中国的一举一动。如果不能更好地评估东南亚地区的社会和族群的动力,或者基于冒险和愚蠢而在海外华人社群中推行老式的统战活动,中国可能会面临危险的警戒线。在终极意义上,对东南亚国家来说,中国既构成了地缘政治挑战,又提供了潜在的经济利益。每一个东南亚国家对中国崛起做出的反应取决于地理远近、经济机遇、威胁认知、历史经验和其他因素。未来,如同国别案例所揭示的那样,越南将继续精心巧妙地制衡中国,以维护其国家利益。而印度尼西亚会利用“一带一路”倡议去推进其国内经济计划和发展雄心。本项研究还认为,中国在东南亚的主导地位并非一个预先注定的结果,而是诸多因素综合作用的产物,包括中国实力和外交,东盟国家(包括单个国家和东盟组织)的反应以及美国、日本和印度等其他大国在该地区的作用和卷入程度。在地区竞争日趋激烈的环境中,东南亚国家将继续推行对华接触和对冲政策,小心谨慎地处理与北京的关系。他们根本没有“选边站”的特权。

This paper examines China’s foreign policy toward Southeast Asia in the context of its neighborhood diplomacy more broadly.It describes how China is navigating between the competing imperatives of pulling the region closer to it economically via the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),while at the same time seeking to consolidate control over contested territorial claims in the South China Sea.The paper also discusses China’s relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)and individual Southeast Asian countries,focusing on Indonesia and Vietnam.The discussion shows how Southeast Asia looms large both as a testing ground for China’s development as a great power and as a gateway for its global expansion in the future.Yet,it also shows that Southeast Asian countries aren’t just inanimate stones as China crosses the proverbial river;they are countries with agency of their own that can frustrate or take advantage of China’s moves.China could also face trip wires if it fails to better assess the social and ethnic dynamics in the region,and pushes ahead with old-style United Front activities with overseas Chinese communities at its own risk and folly.Ultimately,China presents both geopolitical challenges and potential economic benefits to Southeast Asian countries.Their individual responses to China’s rise will depend on geographic proximity,economic opportunity,threat perceptions,historical experience,and other factors.In the future,as the country cases suggest,Vietnam will continue to balance against China in an effort to protect its national interests,albeit delicately,while Indonesia will take advantage of BRI to promote its own domestic economic plans and ambitions.The discussion also suggests that China’s dominance over Southeast Asia is not a pre-ordained outcome,but will be a function of Chinese power and diplomacy,the response of ASEAN countries(both individually and multilaterally),and the role and engagement of other major powers like the United States,Japan,and India.In this increasingly competitive regional environment,Southeast Asian countries will continue to engage China,hedge,and manage their relations with Beijing carefully.They don’t have the luxury of taking sides.