摘要
本文对高德纳(Gartner)公司2010—2020年每年发布的十大战略技术发展趋势和基于技术成熟度曲线的技术发展趋势进行汇总分析,归纳战略技术变化趋势以及技术发展成熟度趋势,而后将十大战略技术发展趋势与高德纳公司每年发布的技术成熟度曲线进行对比,分析并举例论证二者的关系。最后,本文在分析高德纳公司的战略技术发展趋势和技术成熟度曲线契合规律的基础上,对产业技术发展、创新创业、国家战略技术规划和相关学者开展进一步研究提供建议。
This paper collected and analyzed Gartner's ten strategic technology development trend and the technology development trend based on technology maturity curve released during 2010-2020.It summarized strategic technology changing trend and technology development maturity trend,then compared the ten strategic technology development trend and Gartner's annually re⁃leased technology maturity curve,analyzed and illustrated their relationship with examples.Fi⁃nally,based on analysis of the matching rules between the strategic technology development trend and the technology maturity curve of Gartner,this paper provided suggestions for industri⁃al technology development,innovation and entrepreneurship,national strategic technology plan⁃ning and further research by relevant scholars.
作者
金珺
李猛
Jin Jun;Li Meng(School of Management,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou Zhejiang 310058)
出处
《创新科技》
2020年第11期9-16,共8页
Innovation science and technology
基金
国家自科面上项目“全球创新网络下知识密集型企业技术跃迁的影响机制研究”(71672172)。
关键词
战略技术
技术成熟度曲线
技术预测
高德纳
strategic technology
technology maturity curve
technical prediction
Gartner
