喀斯特山区近年来农村人口与居民点用地的时空格局演化——以贵州省为例

Spatial and Temporal Pattern Evolution of Rural Population and Land Use in Karst Mountainous Area in Recent Years-Taking Guizhou Province as an Example

利用农村人口和土地利用数据,分析贵州省2000—2017年农村人口与居民点用地变化的时空特征,引入弹性系数模型分析两者之间的耦合关系。结果显示:(1)2000—2017年农村常住人口持续减少,年均减少约54.51万人;农业户籍人口持续增长;(2)农村居民点用地、常住人均居民点用地持续增长,农业户籍人均居民点用地表现为持续减少,两者差距先减小后拉大;(3)就全省来看,2000—2008年农业户籍人口与农村居民点用地为B类协调(用地面积与人口数量均增加,前者增长率小于后者);农村常住人口与农村居民点用地均为G类失调(用地面积增加,人口数量减少,前者增长率小于后者减少率)。(4)县域尺度来看,第一时段,96.51%的区县为不协调发展类型;第二时段,不协调类型所占比例有95.35%。农村人口与农村居民点用地整体上属于不协调发展型,人口增长和经济发展是农村人地关系发展演化的内生动力,计划生育及乡村发展政策是推动聚落发展的外在推力。农村居民点用地整理、城乡融合发展是解决农村人地关系的重要途径。

Based on the data of rural population and land use,the spatial and temporal characteristics of the change of rural population and residential land use in Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2017 were analyzed,and the elastic coefficient model was introduced to analyze the coupling relationship between the two.The results show that:(1)from 2000 to 2017,the rural resident population continued to decrease,with an average annual decrease of about 545100;the population with agricultural household registration had continued to grow;(2)the land used for rural settlements and the land used for permanent residents per capita continued to grow,while the land used for agricultural household per capita continued to decrease,and the gap between them decreased first and then increased;(3)in terms of the whole province,from 2000 to 2008,the land use of registered agricultural population and rural residential area was in category B coordination(the land area and population both increased,and the growth rate of the former was smaller than that of the latter);both the rural resident population and the land use of rural residential areas were in category G imbalance(the increase of land area and the decrease of population,and the growth rate of the former is less than that of the latter);(4)from the perspective of county scale,in the first period,96.51%of the districts and counties were uncoordinated development types;in the second period,the proportion of discordant types was 95.35%.Rural population and rural residential area on the whole belonged to the uncoordinated development,population growth and economic development were the internal driving force for the development and evolution of the relationship between people and land in rural areas.The land arrangement of rural settlements and the integrated development of urban and rural areas are important ways to solve the relationship between people and land in rural areas.