基于Maxent-CA的常州市土地利用变化模拟与预测分析

Simulation and Prediction Analysis of Land Use Change in Changzhou Based on Maxent-CA

城市土地利用变化格局模拟和预测的研究成果是土地资源优化配置的重要参照依据。利用Maxent-CA模型,结合景观指数对2030年土地利用格局进行预测,得到常州市土地变化空间分布特征。实验表明:2015-2030年,从行政区划角度看,牛塘镇、遥观镇、春江镇和潞城街道内的新增城市用地最多;从增长形态角度看,新增城市用地多沿着已建成区域的边缘,呈较均匀的环状增长,长虹东路、中吴大道、G42沪蓉高速与S38常合高速形成的“丰”字型区域是未来城市用地扩展的主要区片;从景观指数角度看,土地利用格局的斑块数量和景观形状指数均呈现先上升后下降的趋势,而聚集指数与之恰恰相反。所得结果可为国土空间规划的编制提供科学可靠的决策参考。

The simulated or predicted patterns of urban land use change are important references for land resource optimal allocation.We used the Maxent-CA model combined with the landscape index to predict the spatial distribution characteristics pattern ofland use and land change over Changzhou in year 2030.Our result shows apparent increasing of urban land over can be captured at streets in towns Niutang,Yaguan,Chunjiang and Lucheng in terms of the administrative map during 2015-2030.The increased urban land mainly distributes along edges of the existing built-up area,expanding evenly as the circular model.The "丰" shaped area formed by East Changhong Road,Zhongwu Avenue,G42 Shanghai-Chengdu Expressway and S38 Changhe Expressway will grow up in to the main area for the future urban land expansion in Changzhou.The landscape index,patch quantity and landscape shape index of the land use pattern over Changzhou show a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,while the aggregation index is changing on the contrary.This analysis potentially can provide scientific and reliable reference for the formulation of national spatial planning.