“二元悖论”视角下中国跨境资本流动的宏观审慎管理——兼论新冠肺炎疫情影响与应对

Prudent Management of Cross-border Capital Flows in China from the Perspective of“Dual Paradox”--Also on the Impact and Response of the New Crown Epidemic

美国货币政策调整的溢出效应形成的全球金融周期现象可以很好地印证“二元悖论”提出的资本自由流动和货币政策独立性不能兼顾的观点,即一国在资本完全自由流动的情况下即使采用完全浮动汇率制也不能确保货币政策的独立性。跨境资本流动管理是一国保证货币政策独立性、确保金融安全的关键。受到新冠疫情影响,中国的资本外逃风险进一步凸显。后疫情时代中国需要从维护金融安全、保证货币政策独立性的高度重视跨境资本流动宏观审慎管理,建立全口径的监测、预警体系,在完善资本流动管理工具、提高跨境资本流动管理效率的同时进一步推动人民币国际化,加强跨境资本流动管理的国际合作,防范资本外逃风险。

The phenomenon of the global financial cycle formed by the spillover effect of US monetary policy adjustment can well support the view that the dual flow of capital and the independence of monetary policy put forward by the“dualistic paradox”cannot be considered.Under the circumstances,even the use of a fully floating exchange rate system cannot ensure the independence of monetary policy.As a result,cross-border capital flow management has become a guarantee for a country to maintain monetary policy independence and ensure financial security.For China,the post-epidemic era needs to attach great importance to cross-border capital flow management from maintaining financial security and ensuring the independence of monetary policy;establish a full-caliber monitoring and early warning system,improve capital flow management tools,and improve cross-border capital flow management efficiency.And it is a must to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi and strengthen international cooperation in prudent management of cross-border capital flows to prevent capital flight risks.