基于VAR模型的新疆“农业+旅游业”融合发展实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Integrated Development of“Agriculture Plus Tourism”in XinJiang Based on VAR Model

乡村战略背景下,农业与旅游业融合发展已成为必然趋势。为探究新疆农业与旅游业融合发展程度,选取新疆农林牧渔总产值、国内游客人数、入境游客人数以及旅游总收入四个指标来反映农业与旅游业发展水平,并以新疆2002—2018年的时间序列数据,建立VAR模型。结果发现,新疆农业与旅游业存在长期互动关系,国内游客人数的增加极大促进了新疆农业旅游的发展,新疆农业旅游对入境游客吸引力不够,农业的发展滞后于旅游业的发展。针对以上结论,提出提升新疆农业产业层次,扩大农旅融合的广度,完善政策支持,规范服务管理相关建议。

In the context of rural strategy,the integrated development of agriculture and tourism has become an inevitable trend.In order to explore the degree of integrated development of agriculture and tourism in Xinjiang,four indicators including the total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,the number of domestic tourists,the number of inbound tourists,and the total tourism income are selected to reflect the growth level of agriculture and tourism.This article was based on panel data of Xinjiang from 2002 to 2018,establishing the panel VAR model to study their interactive effect.It is found that there is a long-term interaction between agriculture and tourism in Xinjiang,and the increase in the number of domestic tourists has greatly promoted the development of agricultural tourism in Xinjiang,which is not attractive enough to inbound tourists,and the development of agriculture lags behind the development of tourism.Therefore in response to the above conclusions,suggestions are made to improve the agricultural industry level of Xinjiang,expand the breadth of integration of agriculture and tourism,improve policy support,and standardize service management.