1981—2019年气候变化对河南省冬小麦生育期的影响分析

Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Growth Stages in Henan Province from 1981 to 2019

基于河南省1981—2019年26个农业气象观测站的冬小麦观测资料及气象资料,采用一元线性回归法、相关分析法等,分析河南省冬小麦关键生育期的变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:1981—2019年河南省冬小麦播种期、越冬期和返青期随时间进程呈推迟趋势,拔节期、开花期和成熟期呈提前趋势。播种期、越冬期、开花期和成熟期在空间上呈明显的纬向分布特征。播种期、越冬期与月平均气温呈显著正相关关系,春季关键生育期与月平均气温呈显著负相关关系;播种期、越冬期与月降水量呈显著正相关关系,春季关键生育期与月降水量呈显著负相关关系;播种期、越冬期、返青期与月日照时数呈显著负相关关系,返青后关键生育期与月日照时数呈显著正相关关系。

Based on the winter wheat trial data and climate data at 26 national agro-meteorological stations in Henan Province from 1981 to 2019,the linear regression method and correlation analysis were used to analyze the changing characteristics and influence factors of key growth periods of winter wheat.The results showed that the sowing stage,overwintering stage and rejuvenation stage were delayed with time course,while the jointing stage,flowering stage and ripening stage were advanced.The spatial distribution of the sowing stage,overwintering stage,flowering stage and ripening stage were obviously latitudinal.There were significantly positive correlations between sowing stage,overwintering stage and monthly average temperature,and a significant negative correlation between spring key growth period and monthly average temperature.There were significantly positive correlations between sowing stage,overwintering stage and monthly precipitation,and a significant negative correlation between spring key growth period and monthly precipitation.There were significantly negative correlations between sowing stage,overwintering stage,rejuvenated stage and monthly sunshine hours,and a significant positive correlation between the key growth period after rejuvenated stage and monthly sunshine hours;Henan Province.