“一带一路”国际物流绩效对中国出口贸易的影响实证

Empirical Analysis on Impact of Logistics Performance of the Countries and Regions Along the Belt and Road on China's Export Trade

鉴于国际物流绩效是反映一个国家物流发展水平和贸易便利化程度的重要指标,文章以2018年世界银行发布的物流绩效指数(LPI)作为切入点,根据67个“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的LPI指数及其分项指标,利用扩展贸易引力模型对“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的物流绩效对我国出口贸易的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:物流绩效水平有利于促进我国的出口贸易;各项具体指标对中国出口贸易的影响具有异质性,其中海关效率影响最大,其它依次为国际货物运输便利性、物流服务能力、货物运输及时性、货物可追溯性、物流基础设施质量。

International logistics performance is the key factor to reflect a country's logistics development level and the degree of trade facilitation.Relying on 2018 data from the World Bank's logistic performance index(LPI)and the sub-indexes,this paper estimated expanded trade gravity model equations to empirically analyze the impact of international logistics performance of 67 countries and regions along the belt and road on China's export trade.The research results show that:logistics performance in countries and regional along the belt and road has a significant effect on China's export trade;and its sub-indexes on China's export trade in different route are heterogeneous.Among the sub-indexes of LPI,it is found that the greatest impetus of China's export increase is the efficiency of customs clearance,followed by the improvement of international transportation,the quality of logistics services,the frequency with which shipments reach consignees within scheduled or expected delivery times,the ability to track and trace consignments and the quality of trade and transportation infrastructure.