中美贸易摩擦对中国农产品价格的冲击——基于GTAP模型的价格传导机制分解

The impact of Sino-US trade frictions on China’s agricultural products price:a decomposition of price transmission mechanism using the GTAP model

本文使用GTAP模型全面评估了中美贸易摩擦对中国农产品价格的冲击,并从进口品跨国价格传导、国内需求变动引致的价格冲击、国内中间投入品成本的价格传导以及国内生产要素成本的价格传导4个角度,系统剖析了中美贸易摩擦影响中国国内农产品价格的具体机制。研究发现:若中美两国严格执行第一阶段经贸协议,进口品的跨国价格传导机制会导致中国进口农产品价格小幅上涨,但国内中间投入品成本的价格传导机制会导致中国国内农产品市场价格下降2%~4%。因此,中国政府在制定应对中美贸易摩擦的农业和农村发展对策时,须重点考虑的问题是国内农产品价格下降所带来的“谷贱伤农”问题,而非进口品涨价导致的农产品价格上涨问题。

This paper has comprehensively estimated the impact of Sino-US trade frictions on China ’s agricultural products price using the GTAP model, and systematically analyzed the price transmission mechanism from the perspective of the import price transmission, the price shock due to domestic demand shrink, as well as the price transmission of the domestic intermediate input costs and the primary factor costs. It was found that under the commitment of the Phase I Sino-US economic and trade agreement, the import price transmission mechanism could cause a modest rise of China ’s agricultural import price, however the domestic intermediate input price transmission mechanism could lead to a 2%~4% decline of China ’s domestic agricultural products price. Hence, China should focus on the problem of “Cheap grain harms the peasants”, rather than the problem of rising agricultural products price caused by rising price of imports.