中国与“一带一路”沿线国家经济增长的双向溢出效应

Two-way Spillover Effects of Economic Growth between China and Countries along the “Belt and Road”

本文提出了区域间经济溢出效应测度方法及其结构分解方法,考察了1994-2013年中国经济与"一带一路"沿线国家经济增长的双向溢出效应及其变化影响因素。研究发现,中国经济增长对"一带一路"沿线国家的溢出效应及经济增长溢出贡献率呈现上升趋势,对沿线中经济体量较大发展水平较高的国家以及重要的能源供应国具有高的溢出效应和经济增长溢出贡献率,但与一些距离较远的沿线小国的经济联系还有待增强。中国最终需求规模的快速扩张是推动中国经济增长对沿线国家溢出效应增长的最大动力,价值链分工结构变化也是溢出效应增长的重要原因。沿线国家总体能对中国经济产生重要影响,2013年的经济增长贡献率达到2.30%,但增长缓慢。单个国家对中国经济增长的影响则较小,2013年,大多数沿线国家对中国经济的贡献率低于0.01%。价值链分工的深化以及最终需求规模的增长是推动沿线国家对中国溢出效应增长的主要原因。分区域来看,中国经济增长在经济发展程度高和地理上更为邻近的地区经济增长溢出贡献率更高,同时增长也更快。溢出乘数效应所反映的价值链分工发展速度差异是导致这一现象的原因。最后,本文认为中国对沿线国家的经济重要性还亟待加强,"一带一路"建设也有助于调整中国的海外市场格局。

This paper proposes a method for measuring interregional economic spillover effects(SE) and its structural decomposition method, and examines the two-way SE between China and countries along the "Belt and Road"(B&R) and their influencing factors. The study found that China’s SE to countries along B&R and the GDP Share of spillover effect(GSSE) are on the rise, and have high SE to countries with high development level and important energy suppliers. However, the economic ties between China and some remote small countries is weak. The rapid expansion of China’s final demand is the biggest driving force for China’s increasing SE to countries along B&R, and the change of value chains structure is also an important reason. Countries along B&R as a whole can have an important impact on China’s economy, but the growth was slow. The deepening of value chains and the increase in final demand are the main reasons for their increasing SE on China. In terms of subregions, China’s economic growth has a higher GSSE to regions with high development level and the neighboring regions, while also growing faster. The difference in value chains as reflected by the spillover multiplier effect is the main cause. This article argues that China’s importance to countries along B&R still needs to be strengthened, and the B&R Initiative will also help China adjust overseas market structure.