主动扩大进口对中国人力资本积累的影响效应——来自最终品关税削减的长期证据

The Impact of China’s Initiative to Expand Imports on Human Capital Accumulation——Long-term Evidence from Cuts in Output Tariffs

主动扩大进口与人才强国战略是推进中国新时代经济高质量发展的重要举措。本文利用1990—2015年全国人口普查(抽样调查)数据,基于中国加入WTO实施最终品关税削减的政策冲击,采用Bartik方法构建城市层面的关税削减指标以衡量主动扩大进口,从短期和长期视角研究了其对中国人力资本积累的影响,并从区域劳动力市场调整的视角分析其影响机制。研究发现,主动扩大进口显著促进了当地人力资本积累,关税削减程度90分位数城市的高中实际入学率比10分位数城市在2000—2005年累计增加了约3.20%。扩大进口对人力资本积累存在长期动态效应,关税削减程度90分位数城市的高中实际入学率比10分位数城市在2000—2015年累计增加了约4.15%,长期促进效应比短期高出0.95个百分点。此外,扩大进口的人力资本促进效应主要体现在女性群体;当地个人16岁时接受高中教育的概率也显著提高。机制检验表明,扩大进口一方面对当地劳动力尤其是低技能劳动力就业造成负面冲击,进而降低了人们接受教育的机会成本;另一方面扩大了当地高低技能劳动力的收入差异,进而提高了人们接受教育的预期收益。本文结论为中国制定符合经济社会高质量发展的贸易政策和教育政策提供了理论依据和经验支持。

Import Expansion Actively and Talented-person Powerful Nation Strategy are important measures to promote high-quality economic and social development in China.Using the national census(survey)data from 1990 to 2015,and the“Bartik”method to construct regional output tariff reductions,this paper examines the impact of actively expanding imports on human capital investment,and analyzes its impact mechanism from the perspective of local labor markets.The study found that:The initiative imports expansion has significantly promoted local human capital investment,and the actual high school enrollment rate in the nine-decade city of tariff reduction has been increased by 3.20%compared with the decile city in 2000—2005,and 4.15%in 2000—2015.This means that long-term promotion effect is 0.95%higher than the short-term.In addition,promotion effect mainly reflected in the female group.The mechanism test shows that import expansion has a negative impact on the overall employment of the local labor market,especially low-skilled labor,which reduces the opportunity cost of education.Also import expansion has extended wage skill premium,which increases the expected return of education.The conclusion provides more theoretical and empirical support for China to formulate trade and education policies that are consistent with high-quality economic development.