全球价值链分工下产业布局演变对中国增加值和就业的影响研究

The Impact Analysis of Industrial Relocation on China’s GDP and Employment:From the Perspective of Global Value Chain

受生产成本、国家产业政策、重大外部冲击等多种因素的影响,跨国企业或将加速生产网络调整,引发全球产业布局深刻变化,最终对中国经济和就业产生深远影响。本文基于全球多区域投入产出模型,采用反事实的分析方法衡量了全球产业布局演变对中国GDP和就业的影响,并分经济体、分行业深入剖析了影响的作用机理,同时区分刻画了中间品和最终品两类不同路径的影响。研究表明:①过去全球产业呈现不断转入中国的态势,对中国GDP和就业的正向贡献显著。②未来产业转出对中国经济潜在的负向影响不容忽视,其中,美国、日本和韩国将产业从中国转出对中国GDP和就业影响最大。对于大部分资本密集型经济体而言,其将最终品需求从中国转出对中国的负向影响比中间品产业转出的负向影响更大;而对于大部分劳动密集型经济体,结论则相反。③分行业看,技术密集型行业的产业转移,尤其是电子和光学产品以及机械设备制造业的转出对中国GDP的负向影响最大,而且其最终品产业转出的负向影响比中间品产业转出的负向影响更大。对于大部分资本密集型行业,情况则相反。本文的定量分析有助于预判未来全球产业布局变化对中国经济和就业的冲击,提前布局应对。

Influenced by production cost,national industrial policies,and major external shocks,multinational enterprises may accelerate adjusting production network,which could result in global industrial layout change and make far-reaching impact on China’s economy and labor market.In this paper,we employ a world multi-regional input-output model and construct an accounting framework to measure the impacts of outward industrial relocation.By conducting the counterfactual analysis and scenario analysis,we also analyze the mechanism(through which country and industry)and impact routes(through intermediate or final products)of industrial relocation effects.Results show that:①The inward industrial relocation from 2000 to 2014 had significantly boosted China’s GDP and employment;②The potential negative impact of outward industrial relocation from China to economies with lower production costs cannot be neglected.Among them,industrial relocation shifting out from China by the U.S.,Japan and South Korea has the largest negative impact on China.For most capital-intensive economies,the negative impact of their final demand shifting out on China’s economy is larger than that of their intermediate input demand shifting out,while the opposite holds for most labor-intensive economies.Meanwhile,other countries’final demand shifting out from China has a significant negative impact on China’s primary industry and labor-intensive industries such as textile and cloth industry;③The shifting out of technology-intensive industries,especially electric and optical products and other machinery and equipment manufacturing,has the largest negative impact on China’s GDP.For technology-intensive industries,the negative impact of global final demand shifting out is larger than that of global intermediate input demand shifting out,while the opposite holds for most capital-intensive industries.Our analysis has significant policy implications for responding to China’s potential outward industrial relocation.