摘要
2008年国际金融危机后,为应对金融环境恶化、突破零利率约束引发的传统货币政策瓶颈,“前瞻性指引”作为中央沟通和预期管理工具,开始被主要发达经济体的中央银行所采用。本文从内涵、作用机制、有效性三个方面对货币政策前瞻性指引的最新研究成果进行整理、评价和展望,并就基于适应性学习的作用机制和“前瞻性指引之谜”的最新文献进行了单独梳理。本文认为,我国应谨慎启用且须循序渐进实行前瞻性指引,尝试加强前瞻性指引与新型结构性货币政策工具的结合,努力建立双向多渠道沟通机制,提高货币政策透明度。
After the global financial crisis,as an important tool for central bank communication and expectation management,forward guidance has been adopted by many central banks to cope with the deterioration of financial environment and break through the bottleneck of traditional monetary policy caused by zero lower bound on interest rate.This paper reviews the latest studies on forward guidance.It argues that the PBoC should implement forward-looking guidance cautiously and gradually.Moreover,the PBoC should try to strengthen the combination of forward guidance and other monetary policy instruments,and pay attention to the establishment of multi-channel communication mechanism.
作者
聂丽
石凯
NIE Li;SHI Kai(School of Management,Jilin University,Changchun 130061,China;School of Economy and Management,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China)
出处
《金融评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期112-122,126,共12页
Chinese Review of Financial Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“货币政策前瞻性指引的作用机制与政策效果研究”(20CJL006)
吉林省教育厅“十三五”社会科学项目(JJKH20190242SK)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2019ZZ020)的资助。
关键词
中央银行
前瞻性指引
货币政策
Central Bank
Forward Guidance
Monetary Policy
