基于非参数模型的中国碳排放影响因素研究

Research on Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission in China Based on Nonparametric Model

环境保护是我国的一项基本国策,与国计民生息息相关,有效控制碳排放是环境保护的一项重要内容.为探讨人口、人均GDP、能源消费强度以及城镇化率对碳排放的影响,基于中国30个省(市、自治区)的21年面板数据,建立非参数回归模型.通过比较和检验,非参数模型相较于最小二乘法线性模型和半参数模型拟合效果更优.分析结果表明:人均GDP较高时对碳排放量的正向效应相对较大,人口对碳排放量的影响呈现为波动式上升,城镇化率和能源消费强度与碳排放量存在倒“U”型关系.当前应注意人口、经济与环境保护的协调发展,高效降低碳排放,促进经济可持续发展.

Environmental protection is a basic state policy of China,which is closely related to the national economy and people s livelihood.Effective control of carbon emissions is an important part of environmental protection.In order to explore the impact of population,per capita GDP,energy consumption intensity and urbanization rate on carbon emissions,a non-parametric regression model was established based on the 21-year panel data of 30 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China.Through comparison and test,the fitting effect of the non-parametric model is better than that of the least square linear model and the semi-parametric model.The analysis results show that when per capita GDP is high,the positive effect on carbon emissions is relatively large,and the impact of population on carbon emissions increases in a fluctuating manner.There is an inverted“U”shaped relationship between urbanization rate and energy consumption intensity and carbon emissions.At present,attention should be paid to the coordinated development of population,economy and environmental protection to effectively reduce carbon emissions and promote sustainable economic development.