中国流动人口城市落户意愿及其影响因素研究

Migrants’ Willingness to Settle Down in Cities and Its Determinants

文章利用2012、2016和2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,分析了各类城市流动人口落户意愿。研究发现,近年来,流动人口总体的落户意愿呈下降态势,从2012年的49.98%降低到2017年的39.01%;各类城市落户意愿表现出明显的结构特征,与城市吸引力显著相关;流动人口的人力资本、居住状况、农村权益、迁移范围等城乡两栖生活特征与落户意愿显著相关;2014年户籍制度改革对300万人以下内陆地级市的落户意愿影响更大,与其他城市比,2012~2016年该类城市的落户意愿多降低了7~8个百分点,2012~2017年多降低了4~5个百分点。由此文章得到3点启示:(1)落户意愿的结构特征是由落户条件内生决定的,反映了城市落户门槛;(2)户籍制度改革需要农村土地制度、城市住房保障制度等协同推进;(3)户籍制度改革的目的是消除人口迁移的制度约束,实现以市场调节为主。

Using the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS) in 2012, 2016 and 2017, this paper analyzes the migrants’ willingness to settle down in cities. The results show that the overall willingness goes down from 49.98% in 2012 to 39.01%in 2017. The city’s attractiveness is significantly related with their willingness. In addition, migrants’ human capital,living conditions, rural interests and equities, migration distance and other characteristics are significantly relevant as well. In response to the 2014 Hukou System Reform, the willingness to settle down declined significantly in the inland prefectural cities with a population less than 3 million. It drops by 7 ~8 percentage points from 2012 to 2016, and by4~5 percentage points from 2012 to 2017. It concludes that:(1) the migrants’ willingness is determined by the conditions of hukou settlement.(2) The reform of hukou system should be combined with a coordinated reform of rural land rights and urban housing security.(3) The purpose of hukou system reform is to eliminate direct policy constraints and promote market regulations.