全要素生产率视角下的平成日本经济分析——兼论“失去说”与“创新说”之争

An Analysis of Japanese Economy in Heisei Period from the Perspective of TFP:With the Debate between“The Loss Theory”and“The Innovation Theory”

日本在平成时代的30年间发生了重大的社会转型,尤其在经济领域出现了令人难解的现象,一方面陷于长期低增长和通货紧缩难以自拔,另一方面社会运行又显现出高度稳定和不断创新的成果,因此有“失去说”与“创新说”之争。基于经济供给侧的增长核算方法,分析全要素生产率对日本经济发展的影响以及影响全要素生产率增长的主要因素发现,在平成时代日本经济超低增长过程中,相当一段时期内其TFP增长也处于停滞状态,没有对经济增长起明显的促进作用;产业结构发生了一定变化,却与TFP增长相逆;IT投资和研究开发投资也没有对TFP增长发挥积极的支持作用。“日本病”现象的发生,其原因还在于内在的结构性问题。这为解释日本的经济结构调整和创新没有获得显著的成效提供了证据。

During the 30 years of Heisei period in Japan,there have been significant social transformation and some unexplained phenomena in the field of economy.On the one hand,Japanese economy has been in the long-term state of low growth and deflation;on the other hand,it also produces innovative achievement in a stable and continuous way,which results in the debate between "the loss theory" and "the innovation theory".Based on the accounting method of economic supplyside growth,the article analyzes the impact of TFP on Japan’s economic stagnation as well as the main factors affecting the growth of TFP.It shows that in the process of low economic growth in Japan during the Heisei period,the low growth of TFP has not promoted the economic growth.The industrial structure has undergone a certain change but in the opposite of the trend of TFP growth and the IT and R&D investment have not also played a positive role in supporting the TFP growth.The reason for the problem of Japanese economy is due to the inherent structural problems.The article provides some empirical evidences that the structural adjustment and innovation of Japan have not achieved obvious results.