数字支付影响农户消费吗?——基于微观调查数据的经验分析

Do Digital Payments Affect Farmers Consumption?——Empirical Analysis Based on Micro-survey Data

基于行为经济学和交易成本理论构建了数字支付影响农户消费的理论框架。利用2017~2018年的2761份微观调研数据,借助ESR模型和IVQR模型研究了数字支付对全样本农户消费的影响以及对不同消费水平农户影响的差异。结果表明,数字支付能显著提高农户的消费支出,且消费效应对不同消费水平农户有显著差异;数字支付对低消费水平农户的消费效应呈倒“U”型分布,随着消费水平的提升,数字支付产生的消费效应总体呈上升趋势;在数字支付使用频率方面,偶尔使用数字支付就能显著改善农户的消费情况,频繁使用数字支付所带来的消费增长幅度更为明显。基于此,建议通过普及数字金融知识、丰富数字支付渠道等措施,激发农村消费潜力,助力宏观经济高质量发展。

Based on the behavioral economics theory and the transaction cost theory,this paper builds the theoretical framework that the digital payment affects farmers consumption.Using the 2,761 micro-research data collected in 2017 and 2018,it further applies the ESR model and the IVQR model to analyze the impact of digital payments on farmers consumption and the differeences in the impact on farmers at different levels of consumption.The empirical results show that digital payments can significantly increase the consumption level of farmers,but its consumption effect is significantly different for rural households at different consumption levels.The consumption effect of digital payment on farmers at low consumption level has an inverted U-shaped distribution,and with the increase of consumption level,the consumption effect of digital payment generally shows an upward trend.From the perspective of digital payment frequency,the occasional use of digital payment can significantly improve the consumption situation of farmers,and the consumption growth is more obvious caused by frequent use of digital payments.Based on this,it is suggested that the potential of rural consumption be stimulated and high-quality development of the macro economy be promoted through measures such as popularizing digital financial knowledge and enriching digital payment channels.