基于DSR模型的新疆入境旅游流耦合关系研究

Coupling Coordination of Inbound Tourist Flow’s Driving-Status-Responding Model in Xinjiang

基于DSR模型构建入境旅游指标体系,以新疆2003-2017年入境旅游相关数据为基础,利用耦合度模型和耦合协调度模型分析其时序特征与系统间的作用关系,辨识未来新疆入境旅游的发展重点.结果显示:(1)2003-2017年新疆入境旅游流驱动、状态、响应系统及DSR模型综合评价指数变化差异明显,总体表现为跳跃式上升,响应系统发展大体滞后,其社会环境子系统滞后情况最为显著;(2)新疆入境旅游流驱动-状态-响应系统耦合度C∈[0.494,0.581],基本僵持在磨合阶段,表明系统之间作用能力弱;耦合协调度从严重失调逐渐提升为濒临失调,虽协调程度较低,但发展势头较好.综合来看,新疆需在注重目的地的建设基础上,从社会环境的创造和维护、经济发展、生态保护、基础设施完善和旅游服务水平等提高方面来促进新疆入境旅游的良性发展.

Based on DSR model,the index system of inbound tourism was constructed.And based on the inbound tourism data of Xinjiang from 2003 to 2017,the coupling degree model and coupling coordination degree model was used to analyze the interaction between the timing characteristics and the system.So as to identify the development priorities of Xinjiang’s inbound tourism in the future are identified.The results show that:(1)From 2003 to 2017,Xinjiang inbound tourism flow driving,state,response system and DSR model comprehensive evaluation index changes were significantly different.The overall performance was jumping up.But the development of response system generally lagged behind.In response system,social environment subsystem lagged most significantly.(2)The coupling degree of the driving-state-response system of inbound tourism flow in Xinjiang was C∈[0.494,0.581],which was basically deadlocked in the run-in stage,indicating that the interaction ability between the systems is weak.The degree of coupling coordination has gradually increased from serious disorder to near disoeder.Although the degree of coordination was low,the development momentum was good.In general,on the basis of the construction of destination,Xinjiang should promote the sound development of inbound tourism from the aspects of creation and maintenance of social environment,economic development,ecological protection,improvement of infrastructure and improvement of tourism service level.