中国震害预测工作的沿革与发展

EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PREDICTION IN CHINA

在中国地震灾害预测的理论、技术和实践已经有40年的历史,由于政府、社会和公众对防灾减灾意识的逐渐增强,该学科得到了较为广泛的应用,使其成长为地震工程领域比较受关注的学科之一。该文拟从时间节点维度和政府、社会和公众应用的视角阐述其沿革、发展和应用延伸的历程。总体来说,震害预测的发展过程是按照以下的脉络延展的:初期只是针对典型区域内几类建(构)筑物的单体,目的是找出不同类型结构抗震的薄弱环节,为其减灾和加固提供基础依据;而后,重点转向了工作区域内不同结构的群体抗震能力和可能造成的损失及人员伤亡的分布,目标放到了城市、区域的规划、防灾准备和震时的应急评估;近十余年,保险业为了厘定保额和赔率,推动了群体震害预测和灾害风险评估工作;目前,由于政府的大量投入和指导,并分类推进全社会的灾害风险评估和治理,使得震害预测工作迎来了新的发展契机。随着不同的发展阶段,震害预测理论和方法的研究都得到了逐步完善、深化和延伸。该文仅从一个侧面概述了震害预测发展历程,难免挂一漏万和出现评论上谬误,供本行业从业人员讨论。

The theory,technology and practice of earthquake disaster prediction have a history of 40 years in China.Because of the increasing awareness of the government,society and public on disaster prevention and mitigation,research in this area has been widely expanded and has grown into one of the more important topics in the field of earthquake engineering.We present an account of its evolution,development,and application from the viewpoints of time node dimensions and government,society,and public applications.Generally speaking,the development of earthquake damage prediction has progressed according to the following sequence:in the initial stage,it was only aimed at several types of buildings(structures)in earthquake-prone areas to discover the weaknesses in different types of structures,and to provide the basis for disaster reduction and structural retrofit;then,the focus shifted to the seismic capacity and possible damage to different structures in the working area with the objective of developing guidelines for the planning of cities and regions,the disaster prevention preparation and emergency assessment in the event of an earthquake;in the past decade,the insurance industry has promoted mass earthquake disaster prediction and disaster risk assessment to determine appropriate insurance rates and odds ratios;at present,with the input and guidance of the government and the classified promotion of disaster risk assessment and governance of the whole society,earthquake disaster prediction has encountered a new development opportunity.Throughout the development of these different stages,the theory and methods of earthquake disaster prediction have been gradually improved,deepened and extended.By summarizing the development of earthquake disaster prediction,we aim to obtain feedback from and promote discussions with practitioners in this industry.