货币电子化的价格效应实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Price Effect of Currency Electronization

随着移动支付的迅猛发展,讨论货币电子化的价格效应尤为重要,具有很高的理论和实践价值。分别选取最小二乘回归和似不相关回归考察货币电子化对各类价格指数的影响,可以证明似不相关估计更加有效。结果显示:货币电子化程度的加深显著提高了消费者价格指数、生产者价格指数和出口品价格指数,对进口品价格指数的影响不明显。此外,GDP的变动对各类价格指数均无显著影响。实际加权汇率对消费者价格指数没有明显作用,银行间加权利率对四类价格指数均有显著影响。为更好地应对货币电子化对价格体系的冲击,经济当局应推进金融系统基础设施建设,在疏通货币政策传导渠道的同时加强对移动支付行业的管理。

With the rapid development of mobile payment,to disscuss the price effect of currency electronization has great theoretical and practical value.The least square regression and seemingly uncorrelated regression are selected to investigate the impact of currency electronization on various price indexes,which proves that the seemingly unrelated estimation is more effective.The results show that the deepening of currency electronization has significantly improved the consumer price index,producer price index and export price index,but has no significant impact on the import price index.In addition,the change of GDP has no significant effect on all kinds of price indexes.The real weighted exchange rate has no significant effect on the consumer price index,and the inter-bank weighted interest rate has significant influence on the four price indexes.In order to better deal with the impact of currency electronization on the price system,the authorities should promote the infrastructure construction of the financial system and strengthen the management of mobile payment industry while dredging the transmission channels of monetary policy.