基于多项式回归模型的天津港地面沉降预测

Prediction of Tianjin Port land subsidence based on polynomial regression model

选取天津港监测周期超过10年的5个水准点进行地面沉降预测。根据实际情况,选取多项式回归模型进行模拟预测,并对多项式模型的次数进行了比较选取,发现二次多项式更能精确模拟天津港地面沉降规律,最终结果显示:以G415等5个点为代表的沉降趋势反映,在现有的地理环境、人为因素等不变的情况下,天津港的地面沉降仍将继续,且较为严峻,地面会以29 mm/年左右的速度持续下沉。并针对天津港地面沉降现状,给出相关建议。

Ground settlement prediction is carried out for five benchmarks in Tianjin Port with a monitoring period of more than ten years.According to the actual situation,the polynomial regression model is selected for simulation prediction,and the number of polynomial models is compared.It is found that the quadratic polynomial can accurately simulate the surface subsidence law of Tianjin Port.The final result shows:the settlement trend represented by 5 points such as G415 reflects that under the existing geographical environment and human factors,the ground subsidence of Tianjin Port will continue and it will be more severe,and the ground will be around 29 mm/a.The speed continues to sink.And the current situation of land subsidence in Tianjin Port,and give relevant recommendations.