竞争?或者合作?——基于报童决策的底线和现状利润双参照点研究

Competition or cooperation?Reference effect of minimum requirement and status quo on newsvendor decisions

本文将行为决策理论关于多参照点的最新成果引入报童模型,探讨底线和现状利润双重参照点对报童行为决策的影响.其中底线导致决策者产生失败规避而现状导致损失规避的心理效用.特别地,考虑底线利润为外生变量而现状利润可能为外生或内生两种情况.研究发现,由于失败规避和损失规避的心理效应,外生底线点和外生现状点均产生负向决策偏差,此时双参照点为合作关系;当底线为外生而现状利润为内生变量时,考虑到决策者的内生乐观程度,报童决策可能大于(或小于)理论最优订货量,此时双参照点或为竞争或为合作关系.通过敏感性分析,进一步发现报童最优订货量与批发价、底线点、乐观程度和失败规避系数等负相关,并且在一定条件下随零售价和损失规避系数的增大而减小.

Employing the updated risky decision theory on multiple reference points to a newsvendor setting,this paper studies the impact of two reference profits,namely,the minimum requirement(MR)and the status quo(SQ),on the newsvendor decision bias.The newsvendor’s psychological values are divided into gains,losses,and failures based on the values of MR and SQ.In particular,this paper considers MR exogenously given while SQ either exogenously or endogenously determined.With both MR and SQ exogenously determined,the disutility from both the loss aversion and the failure aversion results in the negative decision biases,and thus we call MR and SQ in cooperation.With MR exogenously determined and SQ endogenously determined,the decision bias may be positive or negative,depending on the newsvendor’s level of optimism.Thus we call MR and SQ in competition or cooperation.A further study on sensitivity analysis indicates that the optimal order quantity may decrease with the selling price as well as the coefficient of loss aversion.Our study also generates rich managerial insights.