关于主要发达经济体量化宽松未能实现通胀目标的思考——对2008年后危机时代全球经济金融的分析

Reflections on the failure of quantitative easing measures in major developed economies to achieve inflation targets——Based on a analysis of global economic and financial after the 2008 international financial crisis

为应对2008年金融危机对经济造成的巨大冲击,主要发达经济体相继采取量化宽松货币政策工具,但并未拉动通货膨胀率回升至2%的目标水平,反而长期保持在低通胀状态甚至面临通缩压力。通过分析量化宽松政策实行期间及之后的主要发达经济体供需状况,本文认为原因主要在于:量化宽松政策并未帮助主要发达经济体生产能力回升至危机前增长路径,家庭部门和企业部门需求虽明显修复,但企业部门投资波动较大说明企业预期尚未完全修复。更主要的原因在于,量化宽松政策虽然实现了“央行→商业银行”流动性的顺利传导,但“商业银行→企业和家庭部门”的传导过程受商业银行资产配资偏好影响存在阻滞,无法满足实体经济的信贷需求。最终表现为:货币乘数大幅下降,货币资金价格大幅下跌,资产价格逆势上升。

In response to the huge economic impact caused by the 2008 financial crisis,major developed economies have successively adopted quantitative easing monetary policy tools,but have not driven the inflation rate back to the target level of 2%,but have maintained a low inflation state for a long time.Facing deflationary pressure.By analyzing the supply and demand situation of major developed economies during and after the implementation of the quantitative easing policy,this article believes that the main reason is that the quantitative easing policy has not helped the production capacity of major developed economies to rise to the path of pre-crisis growth,although the demand in the household and corporate sectors is obvious Repair,but the large fluctuations in investment in the corporate sector indicate that the company does not expect it to be fully repaired.The main reason is that although the quantitative easing policy has realized the smooth transmission of"central bank→commercial bank"liquidity,the transmission process of"commercial bank→corporate and household sector"is blocked by the preference of commercial banks for asset allocation.Meet the credit needs of the real economy.The final performance is:the currency multiplier has dropped sharply,the price of money and funds has dropped sharply,and the price of assets has risen against the trend.