东北三省大豆与玉米生产替代关系研究——基于超越对数生产函数的岭回归估计

Study on the Substitute Relationship between Soybean and Corn Production in the Three Provinces of Northeast China——Ridge regression estimation based ontranlogarithmic production function

近年来,关于加大对东北三省大豆和玉米支持力度的政策相继出台,有利于增加大豆、玉米种植面积,提升作物产出水平。在此背景下,本文构建多产出—多投入的超越对数生产函数,量化分析东北三省大豆和玉米的产出弹性、要素替代弹性和产品转化率。研究表明:从2007年开始该地区大豆与玉米产品转换率出现幅度较大的波动,原因是国家更加重视优化农业生产结构。本文测算数据显示:2002-2018年该地区大豆和玉米的平均产品转换率大概在0.58左右。同时,研究还发现其产品转换率和期货相对价格之间存在一定程度的相关关系,由此可预测未来的产品转换率,以其作为调整大豆和玉米的生产要素配置的重要依据。大豆和玉米间替代关系的存在可为东北三省乃至全国及时调整大豆玉米生产结构、提升作物产出水平、实现国家农业供给侧改革的目标提供参考。

A recent years,policies to increase support for soybeans and corn in the three northeastern provinces have been promulgated,which is conducive to increasing soybean and corn planting areas and improving crop output.In this context,this paper constructs a multi-output-multi-input trans-log production function to quantitatively analyze the output elasticity,factor substitution elasticity and product conversion rate of soybean and corn in the three northeast provinces.Studies have shown that the conversion rate of soybeans and corn products in the region has fluctuated greatly since 2007,because the country has paid more attention to optimizing agricultural production structure.The data calculated in this paper show that the average product conversion rate of soybean and corn in this region from 2002 to 2018 is about 0.58.At the same time,the study also found that there is a certain degree of correlation between its product conversion rate and the relative price of futures,which can predict the future product conversion rate and use it as an important basis for adjusting the allocation of production factors of soybeans and corn.The existence of the substitution relationship between soybean and corn can provide reference for timely adjustment of soybean and corn production structure in the three northeast provinces and even the whole country,increase crop output level,and realize the goal of national agricultural supply-side reform.