基于策略型消费者的随机抽奖预售策略研究

Research on Strategy of Advance Selling with Random Reward Based on Strategic Consumers

随着电子商务与平台经济的快速发展,线上线下零售商的竞争不断加剧,零售商对预售策略的实践进行了不断创新。其中,预售与随机抽奖联合策略在实践中应用最广泛。本文在单一预售模型的基础上,对策略型消费者中奖效用进行了建模与求解。研究结果表明:当预售期到达市场的消费者人数与现货销售期到达市场的消费者人数负相关时,零售商的最大期望利润存在。本文给出了零售商达到最优期望利润时消费者中奖效用的表达式,正相关时零售商最优期望利润随消费者中奖效用的增加而减少。研究结果还发现存在一组临界值决定零售商是否采用随机抽奖的预售策略。本文的研究将为零售商的决策提供有益的参考。

With the rapid development of e-commerce and platform economy,the competition between online and offline retailers is intensifying.Retailers have continuously innovated the practice of advance selling strategies,among which the joint strategy of advance selling and random rewards is the most widely used in practice.Based on a single pre-sale model,the strategic consumer's winning utility is modeled and solved in this article.The results show that when the number of consumers arriving at the market in the advance selling period is negatively correlated with the number of consumers arriving at the market in the spot sales period,the retailer's maximum expected profit exists.This article give the expression of the consumer's winning utility when the retailer reaches the optimal expected profit,and in the case of positive correlation,the retail optimal expected profit decreases as the consumer's winning utility increases.The research also finds that there is a set of thresholds that determine whether a retailer adopts an advance selling strategy with a random reward.The research in this paper will provide a useful reference for retailers to make decisions.