公众对中美贸易摩擦的关注差异研究——来自网络搜索大数据的证据

Research on the Differences of Public Concerns over Sino-US Trade Friction——Evidence from Online Searching Big Data

中美贸易摩擦提高了宏观经济调控与稳预期要求。本文利用网络搜索大数据构建能够有效测度公众对中美贸易摩擦关注的指标,测算结果表明:我国不同地区对中美贸易摩擦关注的异质性显著。利用空间滞后模型进一步解读该异质性,发现全要素生产率、社会网络复杂性与收入水平高的地区更加关注中美贸易摩擦,并且在空间上表现出明显的马太效应。研究结论对于深入认识中美贸易摩擦引发的市场不确定性和有效引导公众预期具有重要参考价值。

The Sino-US trade friction has increased the requirements for macroeconomic regulation and ensuring stability in social expectations.This paper uses online searching big data to construct an index that can effectively measure public concerns over Sino-US trade friction.The results show the following:The heterogeneity of concerns over Sino-US trade friction in different regions'is significant.Using the spatial lag model to further interpret the heterogeneity,it is found that regions with high total factor productivity,social network complexity,and income levels pay more concern over Sino-US trade friction,and it shows Matthew effect in space.The research conclusions have important reference value for in-depth understanding of the market uncertainty caused by Sino-US trade frictions and effective guidance of public expectations.