广西甘蔗种植收益的影响因素实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Influencing Factors of Sugarcane Growing Income in Guangxi

广西是我国最主要的甘蔗生产基地,近年来甘蔗种植收益出现不同程度下降。为了研究甘蔗种植收益波动的影响因素,本文采用VAR模型对广西甘蔗收益的影响因素进行实证分析,结果显示:甘蔗收购价格变动1%会引起甘蔗种植收益变动6.299%;甘蔗生产成本与甘蔗种植收益呈现负相关,生产成本变动1%会引起甘蔗种植收益变动3.515%;甘蔗种植收益与单产呈正向关系,甘蔗单产变动1%会引起甘蔗种植收益变动1.360%。从对甘蔗种植收益的影响程度大小来看,收购价格>生产成本>单产。本文认为通过提高甘蔗生产机械化水平,降低甘蔗生产成本,提高甘蔗生产全要素生产率,进一步优化甘蔗产业链,从而促进广西甘蔗种植收益全面提升。

Guangxi is the most important sugarcane production base in China.In recent years,sugarcane growing income has declined in varying degrees.In order to research the influencing factors of sugarcane growing income fluctuation,in this paper,the influencing factors of sugarcane income in Guangxi was analyzed by VAR model.The results showed that 1%change of sugarcane purchase price would cause 6.299%change of sugarcane growing income.There was a negative correlation between sugarcane production cost and cane yield,1%change of sugarcane production cost would cause 3.515%change of sugarcane growing income.There was a positive correlation between sugarcane growing income and cane yield,1%change of cane yield would result in 1.360%change of sugarcane growing income.In terms of the influencing factors on sugarcane growing income,they were in an order of purchase price,production cost and cane yield.Through improving the mechanization level of sugarcane production,reducing the cost of sugarcane production,improving the total factor productivity of sugarcane production,further optimizing the sugarcane industry chain,the overall increase of sugarcane planting revenue in Guangxi should be promoted.