服务业对外直接投资与服务贸易出口:替代抑或创造?

Outbound Direct Investment in the Service Sector and Export of Service Trade:Substitute or Complement?

服务业对外直接投资和服务贸易出口是中国服务经济国际化的两种主要模式,在“一带一路”倡议和“走出去”战略进程中扮演重要角色。服务业对外直接投资影响服务贸易出口的理论机制表现在,一方面通过“技术溢出效应”和“竞争效应”改变东道国服务业市场生态,激活东道国服务业市场要素活力,形成对母国服务产品的替代;另一方面,通过“市场临近效应”和“效率提升效应”对母国服务贸易出口产生创造作用。也即“创造效应”和“替代效应”并存。通过建立SVAR模型对中国的经验研究显示,服务业对外直接投资短期内抑制了服务贸易出口,中长期则对服务贸易出口具有促进作用,服务业对外直接投资是服务贸易出口变化的显著影响因子。建议通过结构改革,增进我国服务企业国际竞争新优势,抵消服务业对外直接投资由于近期世界经济环境恶化带来的不利冲击与影响。

Outbound direct investment and export of service trade are two main modes of internationalization of Chinese service enterprises.Both of them play an important role in the process of“One Belt and One Road”initiative and the“Going Global”strategic.This paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of the impact of services outbound direct investment on export of services,which makes clear that the“creation effect”and“substitution effect”of services outbound direct investment on the export of services coexist at the same time.Through the establishment of SVAR model,the empirical research on China shows that services outbound direct investment has suppressed the export of services in the short term,but promoted export of services in medium and long term.Services outbound direct investment is a significant factor affecting the export of services.The research conclusion has theoretical and practical guiding value for Chinese service enterprises to“go global”under the“One Belt and One Road”initiative and to promote the cultivation and formation of China's export competitiveness of service trade.