认罪认罚对逮捕的影响实证研究——基于300份裁判文书的统计分析

An empirical study on the influence of Guilty Plea on Arrest based on Statis⁃tical Analysis from 300 Juridical Documents

认罪认罚从宽制度与刑事逮捕措施是刑事诉讼体系重要组成部分。对抽样的300份裁判文书进行统计学实证分析发现,除犯罪嫌疑人是否认罪认罚以外,其是否涉嫌严重犯罪以及是否存在如自首、坦白等其他酌定量刑情节,于司法机关是否对其适用逮捕措施存在显著相关性。犯罪嫌疑人所涉罪行的犯罪对象和犯罪客体所受损害越严重,犯罪嫌疑人被逮捕的概率就越大,相对而言其是否认罪认罚对逮捕的影响便有所式微。可借鉴“报应补偿”理论解释这一现象,认罪认罚制度在未来将作为我国刑事诉讼体系的主干,应充分发挥其程序性利益供给效能,在完善制度运行的同时,也能有效改变司法机关审查逮捕的考量思路。

Guilty plea leniency system and criminal arrest measures are important parts of criminal procedure system.It is found that whether the judicial authorities apply the arrest measures to a suspect has close relation with guilty plea and other discretionary circumstances of sentencing such as severity of crime,surrender or confession based on statistical analy⁃sis of 300 juridical documents.The more serious damage the criminal objects experience,the more likely the suspect is ar⁃rested.Guilt plea has comparative little influence on arrest.The theory of retribution compensation may explain this phenom⁃enon.The system of guilty plea will be the backbone of China’s criminal procedure system in the future.Its procedural bene⁃fit supply efficiency should be given full play,which will improve the operation of the system,and effectively change the thinking of judicial organs in examining arrest as well.