基于碳排放权分配的中国省域碳减排奖惩方案

Reward and punishment scheme of China’s provincial carbon emission reduction based on the allocation of carbon emission rights

在厘清各省级行政区责任分担的基础上,构思碳减排路径更能体现区域公平性,由此可以根据各个地区的不同特点施以差异化的激励机制抑或约束手段。有鉴于此,文章在进行相关理论阐述的基础上,通过构建区域分配模型实现了碳排放权的省区分配,以各地区碳排放权初始余额为依据设计了碳减排奖惩方案并进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:①2017—2030年期间,我国30个省(自治区、直辖市)碳排放权分配差异较大。其中云南配额最高,达到了228.969亿t,占该阶段全国总碳排放权的10.12%;吉林、四川、黑龙江、北京、浙江、湖北、河南、江苏和内蒙古依次排在2~10位;宁夏配额最少,占比仅为0.35%;山西、新疆、贵州和福建依次排在倒数2~5位。②有13个省份可以享受碳排放权盈余所应给予的奖励,累计奖励金额高达1788.34亿元。其中,云南居于榜首而河南排在最后一位。总体来看,区域间存在较为明显的两极分化,滇、吉、川、黑、京等5地的奖励之和占到了总奖励金额的81.25%。与此对应,其他17个地区则因为碳排放权处于欠缺状态而需受到一定处罚,累计罚金高达1829.13亿元。其中,山东面临的压力最大而江西最小。区域内部同样存在两极分化现象,但分化程度略好于碳排放权奖励。研究结果能够为更好地践行绿色发展战略、优化碳减排路径提供必要的理论依据与数据支撑。

Conceiving the path for carbon emission reduction on the basis of clarifying the responsibility-sharing of each provincial administrative region will be helpful for the reflection of regional equality in a better way,hence differentiated incentive mechanisms or restrictive measures can be implemented according to different characteristics of regions.In view of this,based on the explanation of relevant theories,this paper achieves the provincial distribution of carbon emission rights by constructing a regional distribution model.It also designs a reward and punishment scheme for carbon emission reduction based on each region’s initial balance of carbon emission rights while an empirical test has been conducted.The results show that:①Between 2017 and 2030,there is a huge difference in the distribution of carbon emission rights among 30 provinces in China.Specifically,Yunnan has the highest quota with a total of 22.90 billion tons,accounting for 10.12%of the total carbon emission rights in China at this stage,with Jilin,Sichuan,Heilongjiang,Beijing,Zhejiang,Hubei,Henan,Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia ranking in the order of 2~10.Ningxia has the minimum quota with only 0.35%of the total;Shanxi,Xinjiang,Guizhou and Fujian rank 2~5 from the bottom.②There are 13 regions that can enjoy the rewards due to the surplus of carbon emission rights,with a cumulative reward amount up to 178.834 billion yuan.Yunnan ranks first while Henan ranks last among those regions.Generally speaking,obvious polarization exists among regions that the sum of the rewards of Yunnan,Jilin,Sichuan,Heilongjiang and Beijing accounts for 81.25%of the total amount.Correspondingly,the other 17 regions are subject to certain penalties due to the lack of carbon emission rights,with a cumulative fine of 182.913 billion yuan,among which Shandong is facing the greatest pressure while Jiangxi is the least.There is also polarization from within the regions,but the degree of differentiation is slightly better than that of carbon emission rights rewards.It is hoped that the research results can provide a necessary theoretical basis and data support for the better implementation of the green development strategy and optimization of the carbon emission reduction path.