中国旅游资源转换效率的时空演变及影响机理

Spatial-temporal evolution of China’s tourism resource conversion efficiency and its impact mechanism

现有关于“旅游产业效率”的研究,多是测度多个投入要素共同产出的综合效率,鲜有对旅游资源这一投入要素的产出效率进行测度。借助修正的DEA模型、空间自相关、空间杜宾模型等方法,对我国省际旅游资源转换效率的时序演变、区域差异、空间溢出效应及作用机理进行了较为全面的考察。研究结论有:①2009—2018年我国省际旅游资源转换效率的均值仅为0.421,且旅游资源转换效率速度增长缓慢,表明我国旅游业发展仍处于规模扩张的粗放阶段。根据旅游资源转换效率发展特征,将其发展趋势可分为旅游大发展阶段和旅游新常态阶段。②十年间,东、中、西部地区旅游资源转换效率的均值分别为0.453、0.387和0.411,形成“东-西-中”阶梯式递减特征,而旅游资源转换效率的增长速度却呈现出“西-中-东”的逐步减小态势,在政策倾斜、产业升级、技术溢出等多重驱动下,区域间旅游资源转换效率的差异逐渐降低。③十年间,全国30省(自治区、直辖市)的旅游资源转换效率具有明显的空间正自相关关系。在影响机理方面:交通条件对旅游资源转换效率的总体空间溢出效应影响最大,其次是旅游产业集聚,再次是经济发展水平。市场化程度、人力资本和创新能力对旅游资源转换效率的总体空间溢出效应均未通过显著性检验。

Existing studies on‘tourism industry efficiency’mostly measure the comprehensive efficiency of the joint output of multiple input factors,but rarely measure the output efficiency of a certain input factor.From the perspective of high-quality development of the tourism economy,this study used the modified DEA model,spatial autocorrelation,and the spatial Durbin model to analyze the time-series evolution,regional differences,spatial spillover effects,and mechanism of China s provincial tourism resource conversion efficiency in more comprehensive way.The conclusions of the study were as follows:①From 2009 to 2018,the average efficiency of inter-provincial tourism resource conversion in China was only 0.421,and the growth of tourism resource conversion efficiency was slow,indicating that the development of China s tourism industry was still in the extensive stage of scale expansion.According to the development characteristics of tourism resource conversion efficiency,its development trend could be divided into two stages:the development stage of tourism and the new normal stage of tourism.②During the past ten years,the average conversion efficiency of tourism resources in the eastern,central and western regions was 0.453,0.387 and 0.411 respectively,forming a‘East-West-Center’stepwise decreasing feature,while the growth rate of the conversion efficiency of tourism resources showed a“West-Center-East”gradually decreasing trend.Driven by multiple factors such as policy inclination,industrial upgrading and technology spillover,the conversion efficiency of tourism resources among regions was poor,and the regional differences gradually decreased.③During the past ten years,the conversion efficiency of tourism resources in 30 provinces and cities had obvious positive spatial autocorrelation.In terms of impact mechanism,traffic conditions had the greatest impact on the overall spatial spillover effect of tourism resource conversion efficiency,followed by tourism industry agglomeration,and then the level of economic development.The degree of marketization,human capital and innovation ability all failed to pass the significance test on the overall spatial spillover effect of tourism resource conversion efficiency.