俄罗斯对疫情下国际格局演变的战略思考――基于战略界、学界的分析判断与政策建议

Strategic Reflections of Russia on the Evolving International Landscape under the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来,国际格局加速演变。俄罗斯战略界和学界认为,疫情正在重塑世界力量格局;疫情下加剧的中美矛盾是结构性的,世界陷入两极对抗的风险上升,甚至可能比当年美苏冷战更危险。俄罗斯欲利用国际格局变化,特别是中美博弈加剧带来的机遇,提升自身大国地位,并避免中美“两极化”成为现实。俄罗斯的判断与目标源自其现实主义的战略传统、长期以来对“东西方”问题的敏感、国家发展和意识形态的保守化趋势,以及国内政治的新变化。为了实现这一目标,俄罗斯将在调整大国关系、强化欧亚战略、夯实保守主义意识形态及政策三方面着力。总体看,俄罗斯战略界和学界的判断与提出的应对之策较为务实,但实现目标仍面临一些阻碍。

The Russian strategic and academic circles have believed the COVID-19 pandemic is re-shaping the world power structure;the tension between China and the US exacerbated by the epidemic is structural;and the risk of a bipolar confrontation is rising,which may be more dangerous than the cold war between the Soviet Union and the United States.Russia wants to take advantage of the changes in the international landscape,especially the opportunities brought by the intensified game between China and the US,to enhance its status as a major power.Russia's judgment and goals have stemmed from its strategic tradition of realism,its long-term sensitivity to the East-West issues,the conservative trend of national development and ideology,and the latest changes in domestic politics.To achieve this objective,Russia is to focus on adjusting its relations with other major powers,strengthening its Eurasia strategy,and consolidating its conservative ideology and policies.On the whole,although the judgment made and countermeasures proposed by Russia's strategic community and others are rather pragmatic,the realization of the goals has to face some impediments.