莫迪政府“自给印度”经济倡议评析

Analysis of the Modi Government's“Self-Sufficient India”Economic Initiative

2020年5月,印度总理莫迪正式提出“自给印度”倡议作为第二任期经济施政议程。“自给印度”既有解决就业等迫在眉睫的民生考虑,也有推动经济复苏、振兴本土制造业的长远布局,实质是在保内需的基础上扩充产能,补齐印度的供应链、产业链短板,为经济提供新的增长动力。这一计划的出台并非新冠肺炎疫情冲击下的仓促之举,而是印人党政府长期秉持的保护主义和经济民族主义倾向的体现。但是,由于国内市场对经济的驱动力减弱,经济改革议程不明,且“自给印度”自身存在扭曲矛盾之处,莫迪政府期望与中国“脱钩”、以本土化来建设世界经济强国的梦想实现难度较大。

In May 2020,Prime Minister Modi of India officially introduced the“Self-Sufficient India”initiative as the economic agenda for his second term in office,which aims not only at resolving employment and other pressing livelihood issues,but also at addressing such long-terms issues as promoting economic recovery and revitalizing domestic manufacturing industry.In essence,this initiative is intended to expand India's production capacity on the basis of ensuring domestic demand,strengthen the weak links in India's supply and industrial chains,and provide new impetus for India's economic growth.The introduction of this initiative is not a hasty move in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak,but a reflection of the trend of protectionism and economic nationalism long promoted by the BJP government.However,as India's domestic market has become less of a driver for economic growth and the initiative has distortions and contradictions in itself,it is rather hard for the Modi government to realize the dream of making India a world-class economic power by“decoupling with China”and boosting economic localization.