水旱灾害下青岛市供水系统韧性能力评估及提升

Resilience Capacity Assessment and Promotion Strategy of Water Supply System in Qingdao under Flood and Drought Disasters

为评估水旱灾害下城市供水系统韧性能力,基于系统韧性与能力分析框架,运用相关性分析和因子分析法,构建反映水源、水厂、供配水管网和用户4个供水全过程系统维度及社会、自然环境、经济、物理、组织5个城市管理系统维度的城市供水系统韧性能力评估指标体系,对指标进行统一赋权,采用基于云模型的多层次综合评价模型对水旱灾害下青岛市供水系统韧性能力进行评估,基于评估结果结合影响供水系统韧性能力的4个主要因素提出韧性能力提升策略。研究表明:青岛市供水系统韧性能力处于中等水平,水源生态条件、经济发展水平、用户用水效率、关键供水基础设施为影响系统韧性的4个主要因素。

In order to evaluate the resilience capacity of urban water supply system under flood and drought disasters,based on the framework of system resilience and capability analysis,we use correlation analysis and factor analysis method to construct the index system of resilience capacity assessment of urban water supply system,which could reflect four dimensions of water supply system,including water source,water plant,water supply and distribution network and users,and five dimensions of urban management system,such as society,natural environment,economy,physics and organization.Then we give unified weight to the indicators,and assess the resilience capability of the water supply system in Qingdao under flood and drought disasters by the multi-level comprehensive assessment model based on cloud model.Finally,based on the evaluation results,combined with the four main factors that affect the resilience capability of water supply system,we put forward the strategy to improve the resilience capability of water supply system.The results show that the resilience capacity of water supply system in Qingdao is at the middle level,and the ecological condition of water source,the level of economic development,the water efficiency of users and the critical water supply infrastructure are the four main factors affecting the resilience of the system.