上海市雷电活动危险度评价

Assessment of Lightning Hazard Degree in Shanghai

基于2009—2017年上海市维萨拉闪电定位系统探测的地闪回击数据,利用模糊数学与GIS空间分析等方法,建立上海市雷电活动危险度模型,开展上海市雷电活动危险度特征评价。结果表明:近年来上海市高等级危险度雷电活动占比明显降低;夏季易发生高等级危险度雷电活动,而秋季易发生低等级危险度雷电活动;6—7时、11—17时易发生高等级危险度雷电活动。上海市雷电活动危险度超越概率空间分布差异明显,且概率差异随着危险度的上升而逐渐减小。南部街道发生雷电活动概率高于北部,但北部街道更易发生高危险度雷电活动。

In this paper,based on lightning data from Vaisala lightning location system in Shanghai from 2009 to 2017,we analyzed the spatial-temporal patterns of the lightning hazard degree by fuzzy mathematics and ArcGIS spatial analysis methods.As the results show,in recent years,the proportion of high-level lightning hazard degree in Shanghai has decreased significantly.High-level lightning activities are prone to occur in summer,while low-level lightning activities are prone to occur in autumn.High-level lightning hazard degree are prone to occur at 6-7 o’clock and 11-17 o’clock.The spatial distribution difference of the probability of exceeding lightning activity risk in Shanghai is obvious,and the probability difference decreases with the increase of the risk degree.The probability of lightning activity in the south is higher than that in the north,but the Northern Street is more prone to be hit by high-risk lightning activities.