地震对经济增长的影响研究:以汶川地震为例

The Impact of Earthquake on Economic Growth:A Case Study of Wenchuan Earthquake

地震灾害会造成人类的生命和财产损失,进而对人类的经济活动产生影响。地震灾害对经济增长的影响表现在地震导致资本存量、投资率、技术进步率和经济增长率的变化。以汶川地震为例,从资本存量的角度看,汶川地震导致2008年固定资本的损失比例为28.9%;此后因为灾后重建的投资导致的资本损失逐步消失。从投资率的角度来看,汶川地震后四川省投资率急剧上升,此后投资率稍有下降。从经济增长中的技术进步率的角度来看,汶川地震之后四川省的技术进步率有所下降。从经济增长率的角度来看,汶川地震导致2008年四川省经济增长率比应有水平降低了1.2%,此后经济增长率因为大规模灾害重建的投资而快速增长。

Earthquakes will cause the loss of human life and property,thus affecting the human economic activities.The impact of earthquake disasters on economic growth is manifested in the changes of capital stock,investment rate,technological progress rate and economic growth rate.In terms of capital stock,the loss ratio of fixed capital caused by Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 was 28.9%,and the capital loss caused by the post-earthquake reconstructions gradually disappeared.From the viewpoint of investment rate,the investment rate of Sichuan Province rose sharply after the Wenchuan earthquake,and then slightly decreased.Concerning the rate of technological progress in economic growth,the technological progress rate of Sichuan Province has declined after the Wenchuan earthquake.From the perspective of economic growth rate,the economic growth rate of Sichuan Province decreased by 1.2%in 2008 due to the Wenchuan earthquake.Since then,the economic growth rate has increased rapidly because of the investment in large-scale disaster reconstruction.