工业化、城镇化与国内财产保险发展充分性——理论逻辑与实证检验

Analysis on Industrialization,Urbanization and Adequacy of Property Insurance Development——Theoretical Logic and Empirical Test

文章从理论上建立了风险基础、经济能力、保险意识三方面共同决定财产保险需求的分析框架,分析了以工业化和城镇化来反映风险基础的合理性,并指出以GDP作为风险基础存在一定缺陷。在此基础上,选择合适的变量指标,通过1997—2018年国内30个地区的面板数据,对国内财产保险发展的充分性进行了实证检验。结果表明:社会经济负担能力的不断提升已经对财险发展起到了积极的正面影响,但由于专业壁垒和宣传滞后,使财产保险市场保源挖掘不充分,风险结构不平衡,即在风险基础上表现为快速推进的城镇化对财险需求产生了显著的促进作用,而迅速提升的工业化却未充分释放财险需求;在风险结构上表现为汽车消费和货物流通方面的财险需求开发较好,而庞大的固定资产投资和商品贸易方面的财险需求仍需要挖潜。最后,在探寻产生这一现象的现实原因基础上,提出了国内财险业高质量转型的对策。

The article establishes a theoretical analysis framework that jointly determines demand for property insurance from three dimensions of risk basis,economic capacity,and insurance awareness,analyzes the rationality of reflecting the risk basis through industrialization and urbanization,and points out that there are certain defects in taking GDP as the risk basis.Then this paper selects appropriate variable indicators and conducts an empirical test on the adequacy of the development of domestic property insurance by using panel data from 30 regions in China from 1997 to 2018.The results show that the continuous improvement of social and economic affordability has had a positive impact on the development of property insurance.However,due to professional barriers and lagging publicity,the property insurance market is not fully tapped and the risk structure is unbalanced.In terms of the risk basis,rapid urbanization has a significant effect on the demand for property insurance,while rapidly advancing industrialization has not fully released demand for the property insurance.In terms of the risk structure,the demand for property insurance in automobile consumption and logistics grows better,while the demand for property insurance in considerable fixed asset investment and commodity trade lags behind their potential.Finally,on the basis of exploring the realistic causes of this phenomenon,the paper puts forward some countermeasures for the high-quality transformation of domestic property insurance industry.