硕士研究生性别结构失衡及其成因分析——基于时间序列ARMA模型分析

An Analysis of the Unbalanced Gender Structure of Postgraduates and the Causes——Based on Time Series ARMA Model Analysis

以2004—2018年女硕士研究生人数及其比重相关数据为依据,通过数据进行平稳化处理并利用序列的自相关、偏自相关性质建立合理时间序列模型。通过时间序列模型分析可知,我国硕士研究生性别比例与性别年龄组基数错位,其主要原因有:传统性别角色分工不同;高等教育入学机会男女平等;女大学生考研意愿因素使女性硕士研究生毛入学率提高。

Based on the number of female postgraduates and their proportions from 2004 to 2018,the author smoothed data and used the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation properties of the sequence,establishing the reasonable time series model,which is used to predict further situation.Through the analysis of this model,it can be seen that the gender ratio of postgraduates in our country is seriously misaligned with the gender-age group base and it shows an increasingly serious trend.The reasons are as follows:1.The traditional gender role division of labor is different.2.The opportunities of higher education entrance are equal to men and women.3.The willingness of female undergraduate students to take part in postgraduate entrance examination and their advantages of this examination have increased the gross enrollment rate of them.