数字化核电厂班组情景意识可靠性评价方法

Reliability Evaluation Method of Team Situation Awareness in Digital Nuclear Power Plant

班组情景意识(TSA)水平是影响班组可靠性的重要原因。为更客观地定量评价数字化核电厂TSA水平,通过定性分析和专家组讨论构建TSA因果概念模型,发展基于贝叶斯网络的TSA可靠性评价方法。该评价方法不仅考虑了行为形成因子(PSF)的相对权重,且发展了分别用于确定中间变量和二值变量条件概率的方法,使获得的概率数据更为客观合理。通过案例分析说明该方法的具体应用。结果表明,该方法不仅能很好地模拟PSF与TSA可靠性之间的因果关系,且在给定事故情景下能定量对TSA可靠性进行评价,并能识别出引发TSA失误的最重要原因,为人因失误预防提供理论支持。

The level of team situation awareness(TSA)is an important reason impacting team reliability.To evaluate TSA level more objectively and quantitatively in digital nuclear power plant(NPP),a TSA causal concept model was constructed by qualitative analysis and expert group discussion,then a TSA reliability evaluation method was developed on the basis of Bayesian network.It not only considered the relative weight of performance shaping factor(PSF),but also developed the methods for determining the conditional probability of intermediate variables and binary variables,respectively,so that the obtained probability data was more objective and reasonable.The specific application of the method was illustrated by case analysis.The results show that the developed method not only could simulate the causal relationship between PSF and TSA reliability,but also could quantitatively evaluate the reliability of TSA under a given accident scenario,and could identify the most important causes triggering TSA errors,which provides theoretical support for the prevention of human error.