支线飞机替换战略的经济性分析

Analysis of economical efficiency for the alternative strategy of regional jets

随着中国城市化进程的发展,西部地区和三四线城市的航空出行需求快速增加。航空公司通常采用干线飞机投入西部航线和三四线城市航空市场,由于客座率不高且航班频次不足,航空公司经济效益不高,西部地区和部分三四线城市的航空出行需求也未得到充分满足。为解决供需矛盾,采用国产某支线飞机替换部分航线经济效益不好的干线飞机虽被提上日程,但是对于替换战略的经济性缺乏定量描述,航空公司始终处于观望状态,进而制约了支线飞机的市场推广。为解决上述问题,构建支线飞机替换战略的经济性模型,随后进行模型验证与仿真分析,比较支线飞机和干线飞机的航段收益,分析所有权模式和关键费用驱动因子对支线飞机运营经济性的影响规律,进而提出支线飞机的优势区域和提升运营经济性的有效措施。

With the development of China’s urbanization process,the demand for air travel in the western regions and third-tier and fourth-tier cities is increasing rapidly.Airlines usually use mainline jets to meet such demands,but either economic efficiency of airlines or service level of customer is not high because of low passenger load factor and insufficient flight frequency.To solve the contradiction between supply and demand,the alternative strategy of using domestic regional jet to replace the mainline jet with low economical efficiency is proposed.However,the airlines still hesitate to take such strategy because of no quantitative measurement on its efficiency.To solve these problems,a system dynamic model of alternative strategy is established and validated by comparing simulation results and practical data from one typical airline.Then the sequent oscillation characteristics of segment revenue,different ownership mode and key cost drivers are analyzed.Based on these principles,it is concluded that suitable scope of the alternative strategy and cost reduction measures should be performed to promote the economical efficiency of regional jets.