雷雨影响空域容量的评估模型及方法

Evaluation model and method of airspace capacity affected by thunderstorm

空域容量是实施空中交通流量管理措施的重要依据,尤其在雷雨天气条件下空域运行容量精准预判,是流量管理战术阶段的重点也是难点。本研究目的在于介绍一种量化评估天气对空域容量影响程度的计算模型,以及在流量管理战术阶段应用该模型的方法,并为开发气象和流量管理人员协同决策支持工具提供参考。本研究的创新之处,在于从天气对空中交通管制运行影响出发,选取流量管理员重点关注的五个关键气象指标,包括回波强度、降水强度、云顶高度、覆盖范围、位置趋势。研究结合运行实际进一步给出指标等级划分标准,运用指标权重提高了模型对不同空域结构的适用性。最后,通过选取典型场景进行实证研究,该模型的准确性和实用性得到初步验证,在战术流量管理阶段表现出较高的应用价值。

Airspace capacity is an important basis for the implementation of air traffic flow management measures.Especially in thunderstorm weather conditions,accurate prediction of the airspace operation capacity is the focus and difficulty during flow management tactical phase.The purpose of this study is to introduce a computational model that quantitatively evaluating the impact of weather on airspace capacity,and a method for applying the model at the operational level on flow management tactical phase,and to guide the development of collaborative decision support tools for meteorological and flow managers.The innovation of this study is to select five key meteorological indicators,including echo intensity,precipitation intensity,cloud top height,coverage and location trend,which the flow manager focuses on.Combined with the actual operation,the classification standard of index grade is further given,and the applicability of the model to different airspace structures is improved by using index weight.Through empirical research on typical scenarios,the accuracy and practicability of the model are verified,which shows high application value in flow management tactical phase.