2020-2035年中国人口大省义务教育阶段资源配置研究——以四川省为例

Research on the Resource Allocation of Compulsory Education in the Province with A Large Population——A Case Study of Sichuan Province

2020-2035年是我国实现教育现代化的关键期,而学龄人口、师资与经费投入是举办义务教育的基础条件。四川省是我国人口第四大省、西部地区的重要省份,以四川省为例对2020-2035年人口大省的义务教育适龄人口与教育资源需求进行预测,对于教育现代化的实现有重要意义。基于Leslie矩阵的队列要素法和实地访谈法构建人口预测模型进行的分析结果表明:其一,2020-2035年期间四川义务教育阶段学生人数呈现出先增后减趋势,与2019年相比,2035年在校生总量将下降45.1万,义务教育中小学将减少1266所,其中小学过剩1425所,小学教师过剩3.23万人,初中则存在1.68万人的专任教师缺口;其二,2029年四川城区学生将超过镇区,对应城区的学校、教师需求不断增加,与2017年相比,2035年城区小学存在缺口884所,农村地区小学则过剩1156所。有鉴于此,在推进教育现代化进程中,应以在校生数量总体减少为契机,深化教育教学改革,进一步提高义务教育质量,回应人民群众由"有学上"到"上好学"的教育需求转变。同时,充分考虑学生由农村向镇区和城区转移的必然趋势,科学配置城乡教育资源,重视、保障边远山区适龄儿童的受教育权。另外,还应注意发挥新形势下线上教育在促进教育公平方面的积极作用,提高教师队伍信息素养,促进优质教育资源共享。

2020-2035 is a critical period for China to realize the modernization of education.School-age population,teacher supply and financial support are the fundamental conditions.Sichuan province is the fourth-most populous province in China and an important economic province in the western region.Taking Sichuan as a case,it is of great significance for the realization of the modernization of education to forecast the school-age population and educational resource demand of the province with a large population in 2020-2035.Based on the Leslie matrix method and field interview,the population prediction model was constructed.Results show that the number of students will increase first then start to drop.Compared with 2019,the number of students in 2035 will decrease by 451?000,the total number of primary and junior high schools will decrease by 1,266.Meanwhile,there will be a surplus of 1,425 primary schools,32,300 primary teachers and a shortage of 16,800 junior high school teachers.In 2029,Sichuan province will have more urban students than township students,with a surplus of 1,156 primary schools in rural areas compared with 2017.It is suggested that in the process of education modernization,we should take the reduction of the number of students as an opportunity to deepen education and teaching reform,further improve the quality of compulsory education,and respond to the change of people’s needs.At the same time,we should give full consideration to the transfer of students from rural areas to urban areas,allocate educational resources in a scientific way in urban and rural areas,guarantee the right to education of school-age children in remote areas.We should give play to the positive role of offline education in promoting educational equity,improve the information literacy of teachers,and promote the sharing of high-quality educational resources.