基于中吉乌铁路线路走向方案的客货运量预测探析

Passenger and Freight Traffic Forecast based on the Alignment Plan of China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway

中吉乌铁路作为“一带一路”倡议陆路国际通道的重要组成部分,同时与规划的吉尔吉斯斯坦的南北铁路衔接,重新构筑吉尔吉斯斯坦的国家铁路网骨架。在工程可行的线路备选方案基础上,分析中吉乌铁路走向方案及影响区概况,运用四阶段法对不同方案下通道客、货运量进行预测,从客货运量的角度对中吉乌铁路阿尔帕方案、杜斯托克方案和奥什方案3个线路走向方案进行评价。结果表明,阿尔帕方案在运量吸引上表现最佳,杜斯托克方案次之,奥什方案较差。基于运量预测角度对中吉乌铁路线路走向方案提供决策,对其他国际通道走向方案研究具有一定的借鉴意义。

China-Kyrgyzsta-Uzbekistan railway is an important part of international land corridor of the Belt and Road Initiative.This line is connected with the planned North-South Railway in Kyrgyzstan and will reshape the national railway network of Kyrgyzstan.Based on the existing feasible alignment plans of the project,this paper analyzes alignment plans of China-Kyrgyzsta-Uzbekistan railway and the areas impacted,and evaluates the Alpa plan,the Dostok plan and the Osh plan from the perspectives of passenger and freight traffic volume.Passenger and freight traffic forecast under different alignment plans is analyzed using four-stage method.The results show that the Alpa plan has the best performance in attracting traffic,followed by the Dostok plan and the Osh plan.The decision method provided by this paper to select the alignment of China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway,which is based on the passenger and freight volume,has a certain reference significance for the research on alignment plans of the other international railway corridors.