金融开放与技术进步——后发国家技术赶超的两个阶段

Financial Openness and Technological Progress:Two Stages of Technological Catch-up in Later-developing Countries

金融开放能否为中国的技术进步提供新动能是当前中国对外开放过程中面临的一个现实问题。本文在理论分析的基础上,利用1998-2017年的跨国面板数据,通过2SLS、中介效应和门限效应模型实证检验金融开放影响技术进步的机制。研究表明,后发国家金融开放一方面通过加强资本的技术溢出引致技术进步,另一方面通过提升劳动力要素价格倒逼技术进步;金融开放下后发国家技术赶超过程可以根据其与世界前沿技术差距的阈值分解为“I”(差距较大)和“II”(差距较小)两个阶段,“I阶段”金融开放的技术进步效应主要表现为由技术溢出效应所主导,但是“II阶段”金融开放的技术进步效应则转变为由价格倒逼效应所主导。这意味着中国在当前的发展阶段下,一方面要持续扩大金融开放水平,另一方面应当着重消除各类劳动力要素价格扭曲以强化金融开放引致技术进步的动能。

Whether the financial openness can provide new driving force for China′s technological progress is a realistic problem that China is facing in the process of opening to the outside world.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper uses cross-border panel data from 1998 to 2017 to empirically test the mechanism of financial openness affecting technological progress by using 2SLS,mediating effect and threshold effect models.The results show that,on the one hand,the financial openness of the later-developing countries leads to technological progress by strengthening the technology spillover of capital;on the other hand,it forces technological progress by increasing the labor factor price;under the background of financial openness,the technological catch-up process of later-developing countries can be divided into“I”(large gap)and“II”(small gap)stages according to the threshold of the gap between them and the world′s leading technologies,and the technological progress effect of financial openness in stage I is mainly dominated by technology spillover effect,but the technological progress effect of“stage II”financial openness is dominated by price backpressure effect.This means that in current stage of development,on the one hand,China should continue to expand the level of financial openness,and on the other hand,it should focus on eliminating the price distortions of various labor factors,so as to strengthen the momentum of technological progress caused by financial openness.