实际汇率变动会影响劳动力参与吗——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

Do Changes in Real Exchange Rates Affect Labor Force Participation-Empirical Research Based on Cross-national Panel Data

基于1997~2017年的跨国面板数据,构建双向固定效应模型研究实际汇率对劳动参与率的影响效应。研究结果显示:(1)实际汇率升值会降低劳动参与率,贬值则提升劳动参与率;(2)实际汇率变动主要通过影响劳动力需求,进而影响劳动参与率;(3)相比于高收入国家,中低收入国家实际汇率变动对劳动参与率的影响更显著。因此,汇率政策的制定需要考虑其对劳动参与率的影响。在中国经济发展过程中,也应采取适当措施来抵消人民币升值对劳动参与率的不良影响。

Based on the cross-border panel data from 1997 to 2017,this paper constructs a two-way fixed effect model to study the effect of real exchange rate on labor participation rate.The results show that:(1)the appreciation of real exchange rate will reduce the labor participation rate,and depreciation will increase the labor participation rate;(2)the change of real exchange rate mainly affects the labor demand,and then affects the labor participation rate;(3)compared with high-income countries,the real exchange rate change in low-income countries has a more significant impact on labor participation rate.Therefore,the formulation of exchange rate policy needs to consider its impact on labor participation rate.In the process of China's economic development,appropriate measures should be taken to offset the adverse effects of RMB appreciation on labor participation rate.